A small cap portfolio (less than $4.5 billion in market capitulation) The Indicated to Beat (ITB) model is a quantitative process, combining the Time Weighted Revision function (TWR), which ranks companies based upon their relative increases/decreases in analysts’ estimates for the next reported quarter, and Standardized Unexpected Earnings Surprise (SUE) which ranks companies by the level they exceeded earnings estimates in the previous reported quarter. For TWR, greater weight is given to more recent revisions. Companies are ranked against each other (the thousand largest publicly traded companies) by decile (1 best - 10 worst). Companies that are in the top two deciles (top 20% or top quintile) in both TWR and SUE are included in the portfolio. Historically, a greater percentage of companies in the with these characteristics exceed estimates in the next reported quarter. Historically 95% of companies with these characteristics beat estimates.
